In 2006, I wrote an article titled "Potential is a Dangerous Word as NBA Draft Approaches."
Every spring, the media and NBA General Managers fall for length, upside and potential. All-Stars like Gilbert Arenas and Carlos Boozer last to the second round while players like Sene, Ndubi Ebi and others receive guaranteed first round money.
If college basketball success plays no part in a player's draft status, why does the NBA insist players attend college?
In almost every mock draft, Arizona's Jerryd Bayless and USC' O.J. Mayo are top five picks while UCLA's Russell Westbrook is at the end of the lottery. However, head-to-head, Westbrook outplayed Bayless and Mayo.
UCLA's Kevin Love is all over draft boards because people believe he is "unathletic"
even though he is as accomplished as any player in the draft.
The most egregious example, however, is Cal's Ryan Anderson who led the Pac-10 in scoring in a conference featuring lottery picks Mayo, Bayless, Stanford's Brook Lopez and Love. Somehow, most mock drafts have Anderson's teammate Devon Hardin picked ahead of Anderson despite Hardin's inability to stay healthy and illustrate any type of offensive fundamentals.
If Anderson was from Serbia, he would be a lottery pick for sure. He is everything NBA executives crave: a 6'10 power forward with some back to the basket game, mobility and three-point range. Sure, he needs to add some strength, but potential lottery picks Brook Lopez, Donte Greene, Anthony Randolph and DeAndre Jordan need strength as well. However, they possess "upside"
and "length"
while all Anderson possesses is offensive fundamentals and demonstrated ability in the NCAA's best conference.
NBA execs travel to Europe every year to find the next Nowitski. However, the next Nowitski might be from El Dorado Hills playing his college ball in Berkeley (ironically, had Nowitski attended college rumors had him headed to Cal). Before falling in love with the length and upside of some other players, NBA execs should travel west to check-out the accomplished Anderson. In the right system (Orlando, Houston), Anderson will be a very good professional player, while some of the players with "upside"
and "potential"
will never realize their potential or utilize their upside.
