Can Budinger and Bayless knock off UCLA in Pac-10 showdown
Outlook: Arizona played four games without hotshot freshman guard Jerryd Bayless, and the Wildcats struggled to score without him. With Bayless back at full speed, Kevin O'Neill has another big-time threat to balance super sophomore Chase Budinger. Arizona runs a lot of staggers and ballscreens to free up Budinger and Jerryd Bayless for jump shots, and both move well without the ball to hunt for their shots. Budinger is an excellent jump-shooter who absolutely drills it when he gets his feet set for a catch-and-shoot opportunity. He can put it down to drive and pull up, but Budinger is not yet proficient at attacking the rim to score or get fouled. Bayless has great range, a really quick first step and he is an excellent jump-shooter.
Arizona has improved defensively, but it still allows opponents to shoot too high of a percentage from the floor. The Wildcats have yet to consistently bear down as a unit and take away the tendencies of opposing offenses.
UCLA is the better defensive team, the better rebounding team and the more efficient offensive team. The Bruins run a lot of different set plays to free up shooters. They also do are committed to getting the ball inside to Kevin Love and playing off him. Love does a nice job of using his body to get position and angles in the post, and he can also step away and hit a perimeter jumper to keep his defender guessing. With Kevin Love, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Alfred Aboya and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA has a front line that can run the floor, impact the offensive glass and defend effectively in the post.
The key for the Bruin defense is the play of guards Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook. Collison is now healthy and playing like the best point guard in the country. Shipp is the Bruins' best perimeter shooter, and Westbrook adds incredible athleticism, open-court ability and ball pressure. With Collison and Westbrook, few teams can match the pressure UCLA's guards can put on the ball at the point of attack. UCLA also does a terrific job of guarding and double-teaming the post, but Arizona sophomore forward Jordan Hill may not require double-teams and could be defended straight up inside.
Key Matchup: Collison against Bayless. I believe Collison to be the best point guard in the country, and Bayless is one of the best combo guards in the country despite being a freshman. There are only a handful of guards who are as fast as Collison end to end, and his defense is stellar. Bayless spent Thursday night guarding USC's O.J. Mayo (who shot 9-for-23), which definitely affected his offensive game. For Arizona to win at Pauley Pavilion, the Wildcats will need big scoring games from Chase Budinger and Bayless. And, Arizona cannot afford careless errors against UCLA, or the Bruins will cut them up.
Key Stats: Rebounding and free throws. UCLA is the more physical team and more proficient at getting to the glass and the line. Arizona has improved on the defensive end, but the Cats are not as sound as the Bruins; Arizona has to have one of its best defensive games to win Saturday. UCLA has bigger and better athletes up front, so Hill will have to take up any slack on the glass.
Subtlety to Watch For: Check out how Love gets position in the post and how he uses his body to pin or seal a defender. Love does his work early, and because of that, he is able to execute simple moves to finish plays. He is like the speedy center fielder who positions himself correctly so he can make the tough plays look easy. Also, watch how Love passes the ball. He can really snap off a pass, especially an outlet pass, and have it right where it is supposed to be for his teammate to make a play.
X Factors: Jawann McClellan and Westbrook. Westbrook is one of the top assist men in the Pac-10 and the country, and he makes momentum plays on the offensive and defensive ends. Westbrook is great in the open court, and he can guard multiple positions with his length and determination. McClellan has been slowed by injuries over the course of his career, but he has slimmed down this season. McClellan had 24 points and eight big rebounds against USC, and as he done all season, he made some really hard-hitting plays to come up with possession of the ball Thursday night. Budinger's 29 points were a significant reason Arizona beat USC, but McClellan's plays were just as important.
Who Wins: Arizona won an important game at USC, and a sweep of Los Angeles would be an unbelievable accomplishment for this team. But, UCLA is the better, deeper and stronger team. The Bruins should win this one at home.
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