It's been over a month now since the draft and it seems the biggest topic of debate has come over Toronto's ambition to obtain a top tier Center in free agency.
Some say it's a terrible idea, as we'll be throwing too much money by committing long term at a position which should be filled by 2012 when Jonas Valanciunas arrives. It's become a fact that there's no brand-name center that Toronto could obtain without spending a very large sum of money.
I feel this same group which is opposed to quick-fix solutions in free agency is also in favor of being a lottery team for next summer. The plan is clear and straight forward to some: Jonas Valanciunas with the addition of a big-name rookie (there's plenty of them) would instantly make the Raptors lethal.
Though that idea sounds great, there are a few flaws in the logic. Toronto's current young squad seems happy to be here, but how are we positive it's not because they've recently found an identity in the league? James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Demar DeRozan, Jerryd Bayless, even Andrea Bargnani have only recently enjoyed breakout seasons. As we saw with Chris Bosh and Vince Carter, when things are going great they were happy to resign with the team, but when things weren't exactly perfect they wanted out. Could this happen with our current young core before Valanciunas and 'our' future rookie establish themselves in the NBA?
Both Carter and Bosh resigned with Toronto after their rookie contracts but Carter did so after Toronto enjoyed the deepest playoff push in franchise history, and Bosh did so with a team that obtained T.J ford, the rookie selected first-overall, and a team which spent a good chunk of change on international superstars Jorge Garbajosa, and Anthony Parker. Ultimately both Bosh and Carter remained on the Raptors just before or just after the team peaked at 47 wins.
The issue that we should be pondering on is: If Bayless is a free agent next summer, with DeRozan and Johnson being free agents two years from now, isn't that going to leave Toronto with a very small window to start winning ball games?
Think about it, Bayless will need a salary increase next summer, while Toronto will have to put some money aside for the extension of DeRozan and Johnson. The Roster might receive a boost with Big-V and some other hot-shot rookie in 2012, but if the Raptors are not winners by the end of 2012-2013, it'd be totally acceptable for DeRozan to leave Toronto if greener pastures present themselves.
Some of you will say that we're guaranteed to make the playoffs in two seasons, but I'm not comfortable with the possibility that we'll be risking years of development on hopes that two Rookies will shine from the get-go.
So that's one side of the story, lets analyze the other side.
Some of us are thinking win-now. Some fans want the Raptors to spend a lot of money on a very good Center that we've been lacking for over half a decade. The obvious negatives to bringing obtaining a center would be that Toronto will 1) miss out on a top 5 lottery pick in a good draft class, and 2) Toronto will spend a ton of money just to create a log-jam in 2012-2013.
While these points are valid and are probably the reason as to why most fans have changed their minds about a free agent Center, I feel there's still more to be said.
First off, whoever we land will dominate statistically as a Center. With the worst rebounding Big man in the NBA starting for Toronto last season, we saw Reggie Evans - a role player, averaging 11.5 boards which was good for fourth in the league. Reggie is probably on his way out this summer, and there are a number of glass eaters available for the Raptors.
By looking at a players' rebounding rate, we can tell just how great they are at grabbing boards without giving an unfair advantage to those who play excessive minutes (Rebound Rate = (100 x (Rebounds x Team Minutes)) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)].
Not surprisingly our own Reggie Evans had the leagues highest rebounding rate at 25.6. Tyson Chandler was ninth in the league last season, and seventh best in the post-season, while skilled big-man Marc Gasol was also 12th best in the post-season despite being next to the rebounding machine Zach Randolph. Other free agents such as Samuel Dalembert (11th in rebounding rate last season) and Nene (15th in the postseason), will grab a large number of boards playing for Toronto.
A top tier Center like Marc Gasol has already been recognized as a top 5 center in the league despite regular season averages of 11.7 points and 7 rebounds. Imagine what would happen to Gasol's value if the his rebounding averages sky-rocket to 11-12 per game.
The point I'm trying to make here is that: it doesn't matter who we add; as long as they're under 29, any legitimate Center we sign should see an increase in their value after a season with Toronto. So even if we "overpay" a free agent, it's very possible we can move him for other assets if we feel Jonas Valanciunas is prepared to start for Toronto.
Since we're not guaranteed Valanciunas will be NBA ready when he arrives, maybe having a Center there would be a good idea. If we find out Jonas isn't capable at the 5 in the last minute, we'll have an extremely hard time finding a true Center in the summer of 2012 since the only available ones will be Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee (both restricted).
It's also good to note that if we pay for a "max" contract (or close to it) after a new CBA is in place, the ratio of how much a team could spend on a player to the overall salary cap will still be similar. In other words, if top free agents currently take up 25% of the salary cap, they will continue to do so after the a new CBA is in place. Salary wise changes to the CBA shouldn't play a factor in our decision here.
Overall the Raptors are at a cross-road The team could go ahead and win tomorrow and deal with the future when the time comes, or they could extend this rebuilding project with aims to reach higher than ever before. Both options are risky; if Toronto makes a few play-off appearances and disappears, fans will look back at the players we could have tanked for, yet at the same time if we test the patience of our young core, they might walk on us setting us back years.
Personally I feel Toronto should go ahead and bring Gasol, Jordan, Nene, or Chandler on board next season. If things aren't looking promising in the first month or so, I'm sure we can scrap the project with relative ease knowing how rare big-man are in this league. If the NBA gives teams an Amnesty Clause (or the "Allan Houston Exception"), the Raptors will have that much less to lose from such an experiment because we don't have any players we'd like to use it on as of now (no, I don't want to waive Bargnani).
Too many fans are thinking way, way down the line, where as the reality of sports is that: anything could happen - so it's always a good idea to aim high early.
So my friends, there's my opinion on the issue. I'd like to know yours, please leave a comment and vote on the poll, I'm sure there's more to be said!
